'India seems to be on a relatively better wicket compared to other emerging markets.'
Fuelled by the $57.8-billion merger of HDFC twins (HDFC Ltd and HDFC Bank), M&A (merger and acquisition) transactions in India touched a record high of $124.2 billion in the first half of 2022-23. Bankers said with several transactions, including the government's stake sale in IDBI Bank and Hindustan Zinc in the pipeline, the ongoing financial year will end up as the best year for M&A activity in the country. Apart from the HDFC transaction, the $6.5-billion acquisition of Holcim stake by the Adani family and L&T's $3.2-billion acquisition of Mindtree added to the record transactions in the first half of FY23.
ITC has been one of the best performing large-cap stock at the bourses thus far in calendar year 2022 (CY22), rallying nearly 52 per cent during this period and outperforming the sector benchmark - the S&P BSE FMCG index - by a wide margin that moved up around 17 per cent during this period. However, the counter has lost over 5 per cent from its recent high of Rs 346.25 hit on September 23, 2022 and has underperformed the S&P BSE Sensex, which has lost nearly 2 per cent since then. So, is the rally in the stock coming to an end, and is this a good time to book profit?
Indian frontline benchmarks - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have rallied around 12 per cent each since June-end and outperformed their global peers by a wide margin. On Thursday, the US Fed hiked interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps) - the third such hike this year - and surprised the markets by projecting further sizable hikes in the coming months. With the latest hike, the Fed fund rate (FFR) now stands in the range of 3 - 3.25 per cent and is highest since January 2008.
India witnessed a 12 per cent year-on-year (YoY) jump in total household wealth last year, at $14,225 billion, according to the Global Wealth Report 2022 by Credit Suisse. The report also forecasts the number of millionaires in the country to more than double from 796,000 in 2021 to 1.6 million in 2026. According to the report, which is based on data for the wealth holdings of 5.3 billion adults across nearly 200 countries, global household wealth rose 9.8 per cent in 2021 to $463.6 trillion, driven by widespread gains in share prices and a favourable environment created by central bank policies in 2020 to lower interest rates but at the cost of inflationary pressure.
'It will be best for investors to have a systematic investment plan in mid-cap and small-cap funds with a three-/five-year horizon.'
The Piramal group and Zurich Insurance have decided to jointly bid for Reliance General Insurance, a subsidiary of Reliance Capital. The groups had earlier submitted separate bids for the general insurance business of bankrupt Reliance Capital. Both Piramal and Zurich will hold 50 per cent each in the proposed special purpose vehicle (SPV).
The Tata group is planning to invest $90 billion in new industries such as mobile components plant, semiconductor, electric vehicles, batteries, renewables energy and e-commerce by 2027. The Tata group's investment in India is far higher than the $75-billion investments planned by Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries and $55-billion investment planned by the Adani group in the next five years in the country, the Economist reported recently. The investment by the Tata group is a shift in its strategy to focus more in the home markets instead of international markets where the group lost money.
'We have relatively strong growth and a healthy corporate earnings cycle as positives, but a worrisome current account deficit and high inflation as challenges.'
One hundred and forty nine new individuals joined the rich list club of 1,103 Indians across 122 cities who cumulatively accumulated a wealth of Rs 100 trillion. Bengaluru -based Kaivalya Vohra, 19, of grocery delivery application Zepto is the youngest self-made and the youngest rich individual, according to IIFL Wealth Hurun India Rich List 2022. The report found 1,103 Indians with a networth of Rs 1,000 crore each - an increase of 62 per cent over five years. There are 221 billionaires (Rs 100 crore networth) in India on the 2022 list - down 16 compared with last year, while 13 people born in the 1990s made it to the list, all self-made.
It has mostly been a one-way street for markets that have moved up sharply since July. The front-line indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have gained 6.7 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in the past three months. The rally in mid- and small-caps has been sharper, with both indices surging 14 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, during this period. This sharp run has made analysts at Jefferies cautious.
'This resilience should be viewed as reflecting the strength of the structural story.'
The Adani group said Reliance Infrastructure, part of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group, had initiated arbitration on one specific dispute under the Share Purchase Agreement (SPA) in December 2021 with a claim for just Rs 500 crore. Adani said it has filed counterclaims against the Ambani company. The Adani group firm, Adani Electricity was reacting to a Reliance Infrastructure statement of last week, which said it has filed an arbitration claim of Rs 13,400 crore against Adani Group in the Mumbai Centre for International Arbitration (MCIA). Reliance had cited a breach of a December 2017 share purchase agreement relating to the transfer of its Mumbai power distribution business to Adani Transmission.
It has been a slow 2022 thus far for the primary markets. In the last 8 months, only 16 companies have raised Rs 40,311 crore via the initial public offer (IPO) route, data from PRIME Database suggests. In comparison, 63 companies had raised a cumulative Rs 1.18 trillion via the IPO route in 2021. A large part of the funds raised in 2022 were on account of the two IPOs - Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and logistics firm Delhivery - that raised a total of over Rs 26,000 crore between themselves.
Reliance Industries (RIL) is likely to be the lone bidder for Mangalore-based JBF Petrochemicals, which is up for sale after defaulting on bank loans worth Rs 5,000 crore. The lenders for the second time extended the deadline for submission of bids, which had ended on August 20, as several players, including public sector companies, were redrawing their acquisition plans, said people in the know. "There were several companies which had submitted their expressions of interest (EoIs) for the company but after due diligence decided to exit the race," said a source close to the development. "The new deadline for submitting financial offers is August-end," the source said.
India is likely to be the fastest-growing Asian economy in 2022-23, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. They expect India's gross domestic product growth to average 7 per cent during this period - the strongest among the largest economies - and contributing 28 per cent and 22 per cent to Asian and global growth, respectively. The Indian economy, they said, is set for its best run in over a decade as pent-up demand is unleashed.
'As we expect the economy to continue to grow above the trend line, we expect capex decisions to be taken next year when there is more certainty about the cost of funding and the economy.'
Reliance Industries, the Tata group, Bharti Airtel and Aditya Birla are among Indian conglomerates that have hedged their revenue and costs linked to the US dollar, giving them financial cover as the rupee fell past 80 against the greenback on Tuesday.
Indian equity markets should be able to withstand inflation up to 8 per cent, said analysts at Credit Suisse Wealth Management in a recent note. Should the rate of inflation move higher than this, the valuation of Indian equities could deteriorate further, they cautioned. The fall from the peak levels has seen Nifty's 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.6 dip toward its 10-year and 5-year (pre-COVID) average of 16.9, which suggests that valuation froth of Indian equities has settled, said the Credit Suisse analysts.
The Tata Tech IPO will be the first from the Tata group since TCS listed its shares in 2004.
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